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ISBI Mortality models and SPC, May 2012

iBID News

A paper on the dynamic assessment of mortality prediction models using Statistical Process Control (SPC) methods was presented at the 16th Congress of the International Society of Burn Injuries (ISBI) in Edinburgh.

[This work won the best poster prize of the American Burn Association meeting, Palm Springs, April 2013]

Introduction: Many mortality prediction models have been developed for use to predict outcome in thermally injured patients. Of these the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI)[1], Belgian Outcome of Burn Injury (BOBI) score [2] and Baux Score (BS) [3] have shown promise in validation studies on independent data. However the performance quality of these prediction models has not been assessed in the midst of changing temporal conditions. Statistical Process Control (SPC), which is widely used in industry to control quality in critical processes, has recently been used to monitor outcomes in surgery and intensive care. This technique has not been used to measure the performance quality of prediction models in burns over time.

Methods: A database of 48,410 acute thermally injured patients admitted to UK burn centres between 2003 and 2011 (inclusive) was constructed from the international Burn Injury Database (iBID). These were chronologically arranged by date of admission into 24 sequential groups to establish a time-sequenced dataset. Each of the groups comprised 2000 patients apart from the last group, which included 2410 patients. The prediction performance of ABSI, BOBI and BS was evaluated over time by applying these models to the 24 time periods. The C-index (AUC on ROC analysis) was used to track the quality of the prediction models.

Results: Twenty-four chronological c-indices for the 3 scoring systems (ABSI, BOBI, BS) were derived. The mean c-indices for the scoring systems were BS 0.952 (95%CI 0.918-0.986), ABSI 0.931 (95%CI 0.892-0.971) and BOBI 0.826 (95%CI 0.812-0.843) with BS providing the best measure of outcome. However X-bar charting with 3-sigma upper and lower limits for the c-indexes showed deterioration of BS with transient loss of control over time, which was not seen with ABSI or BOBI.

Conclusions: This study supports the novel use of SPC to detect significant changes in prediction model performance over time. SPC has the potential to detect changes in model performance that could remain unnoticed using current quality control measures.

 

Telemedicine Projects Sep 2011

iBID News

The Informatics Group of the NNBC has considered reports concerning various telemedicine projects in burn care from across England and Wales. There are three such projects, two of which are network based and one national.

1) A detailed presentation from the South East network was received concerning the development of a tele-referral system using a secure website on which participating emergency departments would register and be able to send text and images for consideration by the burn care team. This has been piloted in East Grinstead (TRIPS) and it is hoped a roll the project out across the network in a phased fashion through 2012.


2) Discussions are underway in the Northern network concerning the potential using telemedicine in a variety of roles but with no specific projects having been identified. A meeting to consider the options was held in Wakefield in early September and future discussions will be held.


3) As part of the iBID software redevelopment a follow-on project was described at its initiation in 2007 to build into the software the ability to accommodate a tele-referral system. With finalisation the iBID software and distribution in 2012 it is anticipated the tele-referral component would then go into full-time development.

The Informatics Group has undertaken to keep all such projects under review and report their progress to the NNBC.

 

Patient Level Costing in Trauma Services May 2011

iBID News

Further to an invitation from the organising committee of the Australian Royal College of Surgeons, a presentation was given by Ken Dunn to the meeting in Adelaide in which he provided an overview of the discussions underway in the UK about the funding of trauma care, with particular reference to burn services.

Additional discussions were had concerning the nature of the burn injury registries in both the UK and Australasia and the potential for collaborative data sharing and research between the two organisations. It was agreed that such data sharing would be considered in detail once be new version of the iBID software was in use in 2012.

 

Public facing data project Apr 2011

iBID News

The Informatics Group of the NNBC has considered the first draft of information about burn services that could be made publicly available. This work was initiated at the request of the NNBC and is in line with Department of Health policy and that of Commissioners of Specialised Services. The difficulties of providing information about specialised services that is comprehensive but understandable and meaningful to a non-medical readership poses significant challenges.

It is intended to provide a first draft for NNBC consideration in the autumn, after which a period of consultation with stakeholders will follow. The potential for providing information in a visual manner, in the form of maps was considered, using some of the existing examples:

www.police.uk

www.ncin.org.uk/cancer_information_tools/eatlas.aspx

 

Burn Care Costs Warsaw Feb 2011

iBID News

Further to an invitation from the Central and Eastern Europe Burns Forum, iBID presented information about the ongoing debate in the UK, and elsewhere, concerning the funding of trauma services with particular reference to burn services. The various methods used in various health economies for burn service remuneration and the different costing methodologies in use in Europe were discussed. The difficulties of providing a high cost and low volume service in a financially challenging environment were universally acknowledged.

Some of the profound organisational challenges being experienced by some services were also detailed during what was a most enjoyable and informative meeting. The ability of iBID to provide information in line with its professed aims was applauded by the meeting but the difficulty of collecting standardised information across so many language, cultural and organisational boundaries was appreciated.

 
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